Is the Housing Crisis Really a Crisis?

You've heard the media scream for months that the nation is in a "housing crisis". Has anyone stopped and really examined the facts?

Dennis Kneale, a commentator on CNBC, recently examined the facts in a "Parting Shot" commentary on Business Nation (click http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=780461999 to see the video). In it, Dennis explained that we have approximately 120 Million homes in the U.S. 30% of them are owned free and clear (no mortgages), so that means that 40 million homes are not affected by the so called "housing crisis"

Out of the remaining 80 million homes, approximately 50% of those were bought before 2000. Since 2000, median home prices have increased by 53%. Home prices have decreased 12% in the last year, but even so if you bought your home before 2000 and sold, you would be ahead by 34%. By the way, the value of existing homes is only down by 1/4%!

Overall, 95% of all mortgage holders in the U.S. are current on the mortgages, that means that the "housing crisis" is affecting about 4 out of 120 million homes!

We've also heard that foreclosures are up 65% over last year, but did you know that only 2% of homes are in foreclosure. As Dennis said, "Where's the Crisis?"

Yes, some areas have been hit particularly hard by foreclosures such as California, Nevada and Florida, but these are the same areas that saw the largest increase in value. California has more foreclosures than 40 other states combined!

So before you buy into the hype, take a look at the facts!

Have We Hit Bottom Yet?

While the national media keeps droning on and on about the real estate foreclosure crisis, there are some positive signs that we may be close to the "bottom of the market" essential for a turnaround!

According to Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the National Association of Realtors, home sales have stabilized over the last seven months and are expected to increase over the rest of 2008!

Pricing should also improve over the next few months. Cities that have performed steadily over the past few years (like Northeast Ohio) are likely to experience home price gains.

Realtors have reported that buyer traffic is increasing, while seller traffic is moderating, which will help with the supply of homes available nationwide and the home buyer tax credit that passed the House and Senate may help buyers make the decision to buy now!

Another positive sign is that the Pending Home Sales Index, which tracks housing contract activity is starting to climb after 5 months of decline!

Pricing still remains key to selling homes. If your home is currently on the market or you're thinking about selling, examine your pricing strategy. If you've been on the market more than a month and your activity is not meeting your expectations, you may need a price adjustment. I've been counseling my seller's to price their homes at the lowest price their willing to take, with no room to negotiate. That way, they'll know quickly as to if the market will support the price. No showings and/or no offers means that the market doesn't currently support their price, and they may need to look for other options! Following this strategy from the beginning of the listing will alleviate a lot of unrealistic expectations.

Back at It!

Hello again from the edge of oblivion! As you may have noticed, I was neglecting my blog - a major "faux pas".

I'm going to try to stop neglecting my blog - hopefully, my new position within the company - Director of Training and Career Development - will allow me more time and freedom to post my feelings on a wide range of real estate topics.

Look for more posts in the coming days! Let me know if you're reading and if you hate or love them - it just might keep me motivated to keep on posting.

Open House Podcast for June 24th, 2007

This Week's Open House Listings for Stephen Merkle - Akron, Ohio area #18 - Stephen Merkle's Open House Podcast for June 24th, 2007

A verbal description of Stephen P. Merkle, CRB, E-Pro's listings in NE Ohio that will be held open on Sunday, June 24th, 2007

New Open House Podcast for the weekend of June 2nd - 3rd, 2007

Gabcast! This Week's Open House Listings for Stephen Merkle - Akron, Ohio area #17 - Stephen Merkle's Open House Podcast for June 2-3rd, 2007

A verbal description of Stephen Merkle's listings that will be held open on June 2nd and 3rd, 2007

Ohio Agency Creates Program to Stem Foreclosures

According to an article in this month's Ohio Realtor, the Ohio Housing Finance Agency (OHFA) will be starting a new program to help homeowners facing imminent mortgage foreclosure the option of refinancing to save their home.

Beginning in April, the program is designed to help homeowners whose current mortgage is inappropriate for their present financial circumstances. The first phase will include $100 million available to homeowners on the brink of foreclosure, who may be searching for more affordable monthly payments.

According to Joseph Gerdenich , former chairman of OHFA and quoted in the article, the program is designed for those who may have lost a job or for those who are in a mortgage whose interest rate is simply to high, not for those who are in over their head due to too much credit card debt.

This program could be a godsend to many Ohioans as foreclosures continue to escalate in Ohio - up 64% in 2006, when compared to 2005 statistics.

Ohioans who think they may be helped by this program are encouraged to contact an OHFA approved lender. Visit http://www.ohiohome.org/ for a complete list of approved lenders.

Lakefront Home For Sale in Portage Lakes Ohio

Video virtual tour of a home listed for sale by Stephen P. Merkle, CRB, E-Pro of Cutler Real Estate. 161 Melody Lane is a 3900+ Sq. Ft. 4BR, 3.5BA Ranch on 1.7 lakefront acres! Truly a unique find in the Portage Lakes area located just south of Akron, Ohio. Go to www.stevemerkle and click on My Listings for further information on this property!

This Weekend's Open House Podcast!

Here's this week's open house podcast!:

This Week's Open House Listings for Stephen Merkle - Stephen Merkle's Open House Podcast for December 10th, 2006

Description of Open Houses held on Stephen Merkle's listings in Northeast Ohio. With rates still low and a large inventory of homes to select from, now is a great time to buy. Stop by one of the opens for information on some special financing incentives available for a limited time!

Remodeling? Review the 2006 Cost vs. Value Report First!

Many people wonder about their return on investment in a home remodeling project. The National Association of Realtors, through an agreement with Remodeling Magazine has published the 2006 Cost vs. Value report. In it, they detail the average cost for typical remodel jobs, the average resale value of the remodel and the percentage of cost recouped from a remodel project. The list details over 60 U.S. markets, but for purposes of this blog, we'll discuss the numbers from the closest metro area, Cleveland, OH.

Here's a breakdown of the return on investment that homeowners could expect from typical remodels:

1. Kitchen Remodel - 54.9%
2. Bathroom Remodel - 59.8%
3. Home Office Remodel - 50.1%
4. Basement Remodel - 59.9%

Should you be worried by the lower recoup values in this year's report. Not necessarily so, says Kemit Baker, Director of remodeling Futures Program at Harvard University. Even with the lower recoup, he believes that "When you consider its value at resale, a home improvement project costs only 20 to 25 cents on the dollar. The other 75 to 80 cents spent on a project go directly back into the home through increased value, not to mention increased homeowner enjoyment".

The good news is that replacement values for key home components continue to lead returns in the cost recoupment area. Here's a breakdown of the typical replacement projects and the cost recouped for the Cleveland, OH area:

Midrange replacements:

1. Roofing - 60.2%
2. Vinyl Siding - 81.2%
3. Wood Windows - 78.3%
4. Vinyl Windows - 81.4%

Upscale replacements:

1. Roofing - 60.2%
2. Fiber cement siding - 79.1%
3. Foam backed vinyl siding - 73.4%
4. Wood Windows - 72.7%
5. Vinyl Windows - 72.7%

For further details on this report or to print out PDF reports for your area (at a cost of $9.95) go to: www.costvsvalue.com

Real Estate Coaching Podcast for November 2nd, 2006 - An Open House System That Works!

Tired of holding an open house and having no one stop by? Consider implementing the easy system described in this week's coaching podcast!

To listen to the podcast, simply click on the play button below:

Real Estate Coaching #2

Open House Podcast for November 5th, 2006

Here's a link to this weeks Open House podcast (November 5th, 2006) featuring 2 properties in the Barberton, Ohio Area. To listen, simply click on the link, or click on the play button in the flash player! See you at the opens!!!

Gabcast! This Week's Open House Listings for Stephen Merkle - Akron, Ohio area #3

Pricing Key to Turnaround in Real Estate Market

According to an article by the National Association of Realtors Chief Economist, David Lereah, pricing will be the key to the turn around he's predicted for the first quarter of 2007.

Lereah believes that today's market is an anomaly, created by nervous consumers, due to rapidly increasing home values and affordable issues. In the past downturns were caused by increases in interest rates and economic slowdows, which isn't the case with today's market. Once home prices are reduced to more affordable levels, homebuyers and investors will get back into the market - which might not be too much longer.

He cites that price growth was negative in the West and Northeast in July and nationally in August. If that continues, he believes that the market may have bottomed out in July. It looks like others may agree - ABC Radio news reported on Friday that new home sales were up nationally by 10% in September, fueled by lower than expected national price increases.

So that's why pricing is key. In this market, sellers need to be realistic about the value of their home. A 5 to 10% price reduction shouldn't wipe out the majority of gains that most homeowners have enjoyed in appreciation over the past few years.

Once the pricing adjustment period has taken place, sales will pick up, dropping housing inventories which should place upward pressure on home prices again, renewing the real estate cycle of life as Lereah puts it.

Open House Podcast

Every Tuesday, I will publish a podcast of the various open houses for my listings. The podcast will feature information on each open house along with the dates and times. Check back often as they will automatically be posted each week! Click on the link below or click on the play button in the media player to hear this weeks podcast!

This Week's Open House Listings (10/29) for Stephen Merkle - Akron/Summit/Medina county, Ohio area - Episode #2

New Feature! Open House Podcast

This feature, posted each Tuesday will detail the open houses held for Stephen Merkle listings. Click on the link or on the play button in the media player below for more info!

Open House Podcast for Stephen Merkle - Akron/Summit/Medina County areas of Ohio - Episode #1

Real Estate Coaching Podcast

One of My New Podcasts!

Well, I've read a lot about it, so I thought I would try my hand at it! I've created a podcast entitled "Real Estate Coaching". In the podcast I will try to share information that can help a Realtor take their career to the next level. Episodes will be posted bi-monthly and automatically posted to this blog when available. Click on the link below or, if your browser supports it, click on the play button in the embedded flash player to find out more!!!!


Gabcast! Real Estate Coaching #1

Is Personal Branding for Realtors on Its deathbed?

I recently read an article on personal branding by Realtors. Over the past few years, with thousands of new agents entering the market place, Realtors tried to create personal brands to set themselves apart from the competition.

We've seen them all - headshot after headshot, slogan after slogan, and so have consumers. The typical branding used by many Realtors is a good first step. It creates awareness of the Realtor, but does it really create motivation for the consumer to use that Realtor?

Today's question for the branded Realtor should be does my brand matter to the consumer? Think about it. We serve consumers by helping them solve specific problems - selling a home quickly, helping a first time buyer purchase their home for the right price, marketing that high-end property successfully.

To truly create a successful agent brand, agents should move past the headshot and logo and begin to communicate a specific solution to the problems that buyers and sellers face. To help the Realtor communicate this new brand, they should ask themselves the following questions to refine their approach:

1. What problems do I solve for my customers
2. What solution have I offered for those problems
3. What makes me different from the hundreds of other Realtors in my marketplace

By answering these questions, Realtors can begin to focus on the three most important ways to build their brand:

1. What one thing do they stand for
2. How can they reach their target market
3. How can I craft an offer that will generate leads from consumers

This process will help Realtors truly differentiate themselves from their competitors and hopefully lead to more closed transactions!

A Change in the Real Estate Market Approaching?

According to an article posted on RISMedia's website (www.rismedia.com), the National Association of Realtors (NAR) projects sales activity should increase early next year.

According to David Lereah, NAR's Chief Economist lower home prices combined with lower interest rates and job creation should entice home buyers who have been on the sideline to enter the housing market.

2006 will still be a strong housing year, with over 6.45 million homes sold across the nation, the third strongest housing year after 2004 and 2005.

The Realtor and New Technology for Marketing Homes

I read an interesting article on the web the other day about the implementation of new technology by Realtors. It seems that we're on the slow end of adaptation. I've read stats that indicate that the use of the internet in the search for homes is between 74 - 85%, yet there are numerous real estate agents who don't have a website or don't want their listings posted to the internet? The article also noted that the Real Estate industry takes about 5-10 years to adapt a new technological trend.

What about text messaging? Other than instant messaging their kids or friends many Realtors probably aren't aware that text messaging can be used in the marketing of homes. Imagine - what's the typical age of a text messager? Compare that to the average age of a first time homebuyer, which by the way - according to the National Association of Realtors will make up approximately 40% of the market this year. Can you see the benefit of implementing instant messaging in your marketing plan?

How's your technology? Do a technology assessment on yourself. Are you using the same technology that your buyers are used to when dealing with other professionals? If not, they may move on to the Realtor who is.....

Musings on the Market

Our local paper, the Akron Beacon Journal, published an article entitled "Sellers Wheel and Deal" in yesterday's business section. It detailed the challenges that Sellers are facing in today's buyers markets and the incentives that some sellers are offering. Some Seller's are providing gift cardsto their Buyers at closing, some are paying closing costs and or points. Others are offering flexible terms such as lease options and land contracts for buyers with credit challenges who may not be able to obtain "conforming" mortgages.

The media has been quick to pounce on what they call a "downturn" in the housing market. But there are opportunities for Buyers and even Sellers who need to purchase another home. If you're a Buyer, the increased inventory currently on the market offers many more choices and may provide opportunities to purchase a home at a more competitive price than the past few years. If you're a Seller, don't lose hope! That same opportunity may exist for you. If you're moving up, you may be able to get a more competitive price on that move up house, perhaps even enough to offset the "loss" of equity that you may experience in the lower price your receive on your current property.

A good way to look at this situation, was an analogy offered by a past client that may be interested in moving up to a larger home. He suggested that Sellers should look at themselves as corporations. Look at the bottom line - if the competitive price you may be able to buy that move up home offers enough to offset the lower price you receive on your current property, your family still comes out ahead!"

Zillow.com and today's market

I've been reading and seeing an awful lot of stuff regarding the impact that Zillow.com and other internet based home valuation services will have on the Real Estate industry in the future. In my opinion, I believe they will impact the real estate industry, but its too soon to guess as to how deeply it will affect it.

For those of you who aren't familiar with Zillow, its a free internet based home valuation service. It allows anyone an address to get a Zestimate, Zillow's trademarked term for a value range. I used a current listing in our office inventory as an example and the Zestimate was in the low $200's. They also gave a value range of between $190k-$249K, a range of $60,000 or 30%.

These numbers could be very misleading to the average consumer. We all know that the average seller will feel that their home will be worth more towards the high end of the value range give, while a potential buyer will believe its worth more towards the low end. It appears that the data being used by Zillow is past sales, the values of which could be skewed (depending on the local market conditions).

That's why I believe that value of a professional Realtor will continue to grow, not shrink. Consumers have an awful lot of information available to them at their fingertips, but who will help them understand that information? There are many nuances to pricing a home, especially in today's market.

While I believe that consumers will continue to use these services to help gather information, they will continue to seek professional Realtor assistance to help guide them through the real estate sale or purchase process. Realtors should be on their toes, however, and prepared to answer the objection - "..but zillow says the home is worth ....."